Mirror, Mirror on the wall, which is the biggest retirement village operator?
Location of the Heliers. Source: Oceania Healthcare
Summerset will overtake Ryman Healthcare as the largest NZX-listed retirement village operator by calendar 2032, according to Craigs Investment Partners analyst Stephen Ridgewell.
That might not look like much of a stretch when you compare the two companies' current market capitalisation.
With Summerset shares closing at $11.15 on Monday, the market was valuing the shares at a little above their net tangible asset backing (NTA) of $11.104 and valuing the company at $2.63 billion.
Ryman shares ended Monday at $4.26, a 37.7% discount to its NTA of $6.836 at September 30 last year, putting its market capitalisation at $2.93 billion.
But if the market believed Ryman's NTA, it would value the company at $4.7 billion.
Ridgewell is expecting Ryman's portfolio will grow by about 34% by 2030 while Summerset’s will have grown by about 97%.