RBNZ refuses responsibility for engineering an even worse recession than the GFC

Source: Shamubeel Eaqub, StatsNZ and RBNZ

On Wednesday we should get inflation data showing that the Consumers Price Index has at last fallen back into the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target range.

I've seen two banks providing a 2.2% forecast and three saying 2.3% for the year ended September, compared with 3.3% for the year ended June, and the RBNZ is also forecasting a 2.3% outcome making it 13 quarters that RBNZ failed in its primary job of keeping inflation contained.

The reason it will fall so much is because the September quarter of last year, which rose 1.8%, will drop out of the annual calculation.

But getting the inflation Genie back in the bottle – the CPI peaked at 7.3% in the year ended June 2022 – has come at great cost to the economy.

Data out yesterday showed the Performance of Services Index for September continued in contractionary territory for a seventh consecutive month.