Summerset is effectively now the leading retirement village operator by value

Summerset chief executive Scott Scoullar sounded a note of caution. Source: Summerset.

At the end of April last year, I reported that Craigs Investment Partners analyst Stephen Ridgewell reckoned Summerset would overtake Ryman Healthcare as the largest NZX-listed retirement village operator by 2032.

In fact, in market capitalisation terms, Summerset was there already before Ryman’s capital raising last week.

With the shares closing at a record $12.69 on Monday, Summerset’s market cap was $3.04 billion, compared with Ryman’s market value of $2.96 billion on Feb 21 before it announced its $1 billion share offer.

When Ryman completes the offer on March 17, if the shares remain at Monday’s closing price of $3.05, its market cap will be a smidge under $3.1 billion.

Of course, there’s no guarantee the current share price will hold – it fell as low as $3.03 on Monday and the company still has to raise another $279 million from the retail leg of the offer – it has already raised $721 million from the institutional leg and placement.